Curaçao vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 100¢ · $596 held · ended Nov 13

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$596.11

Combined PnL

$136.65

Smart Money Entry

37.5¢ → 100¢

+166% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$519.62

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$317.75

Over7 traders

Total Value$76.5

Total Shares587

Combined PnL-$181.1

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 33¢	$115.77	$341.82	+$226.05	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 33¢	$34.65	$94.5	+$59.85	55% 275-224 (499)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 41.5¢	$137.86	$75.82	-$62.04	48% 703-766 (1469)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 65.7¢	$36.22	$55.11	+$18.89	34% 362-700 (1062)
CC ccllar<$100	Underavg 54¢	$15.23	$28.19	+$12.96	43% 37-50 (87)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.25	$0.5	-$2.75	48% 627-689 (1316)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 34.6¢	$61.29	$0.08	-$57.5	46% 622-743 (1365)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 34.3¢	$27.45	$0.04	-$27.41	42% 419-573 (992)
nacaradogolCTR<$100	Overavg 9.5¢	$5	$0.03	-$4.97	— 8-10 (18)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 39.6¢	$31.8	$0.02	-$17.43	44% 496-624 (1120)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$9	$0.01	-$8.99	51% 108-103 (211)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$115.77

Value

$341.82

PnL

+$226.05

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$34.65

Value

$94.5

PnL

+$59.85

Record

55%

275-224 (499)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$137.86

Value

$75.82

PnL

-$62.04

Record

48%

703-766 (1469)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$36.22

Value

$55.11

PnL

+$18.89

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

ccllar<$100

Under

Invested

$15.23

Value

$28.19

PnL

+$12.96

Record

43%

37-50 (87)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.75

Record

48%

627-689 (1316)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.29

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$57.5

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$27.41

Record

42%

419-573 (992)

nacaradogolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.97

Record

—

8-10 (18)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$17.43

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.99

Record

51%

108-103 (211)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.