Will Curaçao vs. Panama end in a draw?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 53¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$1.0K
-$49.12
68.6¢ → 52.5¢
-24% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Noavg 70¢ | $337.4 | $303.66 | -$33.74 | 46% 622-743 (1365) |
SU suitcase6628 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $183.7 | $157.5 | -$26.2 | 63% 405-236 (641) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 58.3¢ | $107.5 | $115.89 | +$8.38 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71¢ | $122.41 | $108.62 | -$13.79 | 54% 1789-1504 (3293) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $66.66 | $101.21 | +$34.55 | 46% 1805-2097 (3902) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $92.86 | $84.61 | -$8.25 | 48% 703-766 (1469) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $77.3 | $72.4 | -$4.9 | 42% 419-573 (992) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $45.54 | $41.58 | -$3.96 | 32% 256-556 (812) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $14.18 | $13.63 | -$0.55 | 53% 6404-5641 (12045) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $7.59 | $6.93 | -$0.66 | 44% 496-624 (1120) |
dips.Invested
$337.4
Value
$303.66
PnL
-$33.74
Record
46%
622-743 (1365)
Invested
$183.7
Value
$157.5
PnL
-$26.2
Record
63%
405-236 (641)
Invested
$107.5
Value
$115.89
PnL
+$8.38
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$122.41
Value
$108.62
PnL
-$13.79
Record
54%
1789-1504 (3293)
Invested
$66.66
Value
$101.21
PnL
+$34.55
Record
46%
1805-2097 (3902)
poshposh<$100Invested
$92.86
Value
$84.61
PnL
-$8.25
Record
48%
703-766 (1469)
Invested
$77.3
Value
$72.4
PnL
-$4.9
Record
42%
419-573 (992)
Invested
$45.54
Value
$41.58
PnL
-$3.96
Record
32%
256-556 (812)
Invested
$14.18
Value
$13.63
PnL
-$0.55
Record
53%
6404-5641 (12045)
Invested
$7.59
Value
$6.93
PnL
-$0.66
Record
44%
496-624 (1120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.