Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jamaica vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 48¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$537.69

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 47.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,357

Combined PnL+$506.52

Under9 traders

Total Value$356.77

Total Shares719

Combined PnL+$31.18

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$395.32	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$592.4	$674.11	+$81.71	52% 2345-2123 (4468)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 48¢	$353.82	$383.3	+$29.48	41% 1104-1559 (2663)
MO mouzsynapse	Underavg 47¢	$160.66	$164.08	+$3.42	40% 136-208 (344)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 45¢	$85.93	$102.16	+$16.23	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
dips.<$100	Underavg 41¢	$21.39	$25.56	+$4.17	48% 1108-1208 (2316)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 41¢	$21.32	$25.48	+$4.16	46% 769-917 (1686)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$18.58	$22.99	+$4.41	37% 1155-1943 (3098)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 48¢	$7.54	$7.54	+$0	40% 453-675 (1128)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 41¢	$6.64	$5.5	-$1.13	47% 1052-1201 (2253)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.09	$2.09	+$0	46% 2924-3473 (6397)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.04	$0.98	-$0.06	56% 595-469 (1064)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$2,868.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$395.32

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$592.4

Value

$674.11

PnL

+$81.71

Record

52%

2345-2123 (4468)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$353.82

Value

$383.3

PnL

+$29.48

Record

41%

1104-1559 (2663)

mouzsynapse

Under

Invested

$160.66

Value

$164.08

PnL

+$3.42

Record

40%

136-208 (344)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$85.93

Value

$102.16

PnL

+$16.23

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$21.39

Value

$25.56

PnL

+$4.17

Record

48%

1108-1208 (2316)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$21.32

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$4.16

Record

46%

769-917 (1686)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$18.58

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$4.41

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$7.54

Value

$7.54

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

453-675 (1128)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$6.64

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$1.13

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.09

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2924-3473 (6397)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

595-469 (1064)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.