Jamaica vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 80¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$85.23

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 79.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 16 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,242

Combined PnL+$165.14

Under11 traders

Total Value$446.09

Total Shares2,026

Combined PnL-$79.9

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 72.6¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$251.93	52% 2345-2123 (4468)
SU suntori	Overavg 77¢	$954.27	$867.64	-$86.63	46% 2924-3473 (6397)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 22.5¢	$246.6	$227.29	-$19.31	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.5¢	$137.53	$125.28	-$12.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 85¢	$109.07	$102.01	-$7.06
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 23¢	$156.6	$156.6	-$0	40% 136-208 (344)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$74.38	$74.23	-$0.15	40% 453-675 (1128)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$70.87	$70.87	+$0	59% 3861-2655 (6516)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 32.9¢	$111.61	$55.9	-$55.71	37% 1155-1943 (3098)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 34.7¢	$48.24	$28.51	-$19.73	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$20.99	$19.74	-$1.25	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
dips.<$100	Overavg 85¢	$17.28	$17.18	-$0.1	48% 1108-1208 (2316)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 23.4¢	$17.48	$15.3	-$2.18	37% 1136-1917 (3053)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 85¢	$11.05	$10.99	-$0.07	46% 769-917 (1686)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$8.43	$8.55	+$0.12	55% 5637-4683 (10320)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 19.6¢	$6.34	$6	-$0.34	36% 563-1018 (1581)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$6.33	$5.39	-$0.94	56% 595-469 (1064)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 14.7¢	$4.71	$4.98	+$0.27	47% 1052-1201 (2253)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 85¢	$1.53	$1.54	+$0.01	51% 954-911 (1865)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,443.87

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$251.93

Record

52%

2345-2123 (4468)

suntori

Over

Invested

$954.27

Value

$867.64

PnL

-$86.63

Record

46%

2924-3473 (6397)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$246.6

Value

$227.29

PnL

-$19.31

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

Both legs:

Under$137.5322.5¢-$12.25

Over$109.0785¢-$7.06

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$156.6

Value

$156.6

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

136-208 (344)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.38

Value

$74.23

PnL

-$0.15

Record

40%

453-675 (1128)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.87

Value

$70.87

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3861-2655 (6516)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$111.61

Value

$55.9

PnL

-$55.71

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.24

Value

$28.51

PnL

-$19.73

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.99

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$1.25

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$17.28

Value

$17.18

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

1108-1208 (2316)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.48

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$2.18

Record

37%

1136-1917 (3053)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$11.05

Value

$10.99

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

769-917 (1686)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.43

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

5637-4683 (10320)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.34

Value

PnL

-$0.34

Record

36%

563-1018 (1581)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.33

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.94

Record

56%

595-469 (1064)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

954-911 (1865)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 16 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.