Will Jamaica win on 2026-11-14?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$3.5K
-$0.26
86.2¢ → 89.5¢
+4% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 89¢ | $926.5 | $926.5 | +$0 | 59% 3827-2633 (6460) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 88.7¢ | $630.49 | $632.65 | +$2.16 | 53% 2249-2030 (4279) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 87¢ | $518.94 | $530.87 | +$11.93 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 87¢ | $474.97 | $485.89 | +$10.92 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 89¢ | $432.15 | $432.15 | +$0 | 39% 419-652 (1071) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Noavg 50¢ | $200 | $198 | -$2 | 68% 136-63 (199) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $183.32 | $165.64 | -$17.68 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $60.99 | $61.33 | +$0.34 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $38.23 | $32.28 | -$5.95 | 42% 1060-1490 (2550) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $32.03 | $32.03 | -$0 | 55% 547-442 (989) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $1.96 | $1.97 | +$0.01 | 42% 2644-3715 (6359) |
Invested
$926.5
Value
$926.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3827-2633 (6460)
Invested
$630.49
Value
$632.65
PnL
+$2.16
Record
53%
2249-2030 (4279)
Invested
$518.94
Value
$530.87
PnL
+$11.93
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
Invested
$474.97
Value
$485.89
PnL
+$10.92
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
Invested
$432.15
Value
$432.15
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
419-652 (1071)
Invested
$200
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
68%
136-63 (199)
Invested
$183.32
Value
$165.64
PnL
-$17.68
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$60.99
Value
$61.33
PnL
+$0.34
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
Invested
$38.23
Value
$32.28
PnL
-$5.95
Record
42%
1060-1490 (2550)
Invested
$32.03
Value
$32.03
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
547-442 (989)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$1.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
42%
2644-3715 (6359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.