Jamaica vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$417.85

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,040

Combined PnL-$282.36

Under6 traders

Total Value$0.48

Total Shares955

Combined PnL-$135.49

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 97.6¢	$1.1K	$837.53	-$286.48	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 98.8¢	$164.44	$166.27	+$1.83	85% 85-15 (100)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 84¢	$30.54	$31.24	+$0.7	46% 877-1050 (1927)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.99	+$1.59	56% 598-472 (1070)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$3.93	$0.2	-$3.73	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 1.1¢	$3.18	$0.14	-$3.04	46% 775-926 (1701)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$51.63	$0.05	-$51.58	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$39.27	$0.04	-$39.23	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$18.4	$0.02	-$18.38	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$19.56	$0.02	-$19.54	37% 1155-1966 (3121)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,124.01

Value

$837.53

PnL

-$286.48

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$164.44

Value

$166.27

PnL

+$1.83

Record

85%

85-15 (100)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$30.54

Value

$31.24

PnL

+$0.7

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$1.59

Record

56%

598-472 (1070)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.93

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$3.73

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$3.04

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.63

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$51.58

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$39.23

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.4

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$18.38

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.56

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$19.54

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.