Will Jamaica vs. Mexico end in a draw?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 69¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$12.4K
$140.94
70.2¢ → 68.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 70¢ | $5.5K | $5.4K | -$77.01 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$46.55 | 52% 2345-2123 (4468) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$163.69 | 37% 1136-1917 (3053) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$53.93 | 37% 1155-1943 (3098) |
 RN1 | Noavg 69¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$29.08 | 55% 5637-4683 (10320) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $905.62 | $922.01 | +$16.38 | 37% 1136-1943 (3079) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 82.8¢ | $62.32 | $63.31 | +$0.99 | 32% 412-857 (1269) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $14.25 | $14.25 | +$0 | 38% 1162-1897 (3059) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8.6 | $9.03 | +$0.43 | 59% 3861-2655 (6516) |
Invested
$5,478.8
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$77.01
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$2,140.52
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$46.55
Record
52%
2345-2123 (4468)
Invested
$1,431.83
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$163.69
Record
37%
1136-1917 (3053)
Invested
$1,166.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$53.93
Record
37%
1155-1943 (3098)
RN1Invested
$1,003.26
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$29.08
Record
55%
5637-4683 (10320)
Invested
$905.62
Value
$922.01
PnL
+$16.38
Record
37%
1136-1943 (3079)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$62.32
Value
$63.31
PnL
+$0.99
Record
32%
412-857 (1269)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$14.25
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1162-1897 (3059)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$9.03
PnL
+$0.43
Record
59%
3861-2655 (6516)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.