Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will United States win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 24¢ · $935 held · ends Nov 14

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$934.6

Combined PnL

-$24.05

Smart Money Entry

23.5¢ → 23.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$725.63

Total Shares3,201

Combined PnL-$26.34

Yes2 traders

Total Value$208.97

Total Shares272

Combined PnL+$2.28

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 23.3¢	$316.46	$306.1	-$10.35	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 24¢	$187.24	$175.55	-$11.69	36% 928-1642 (2570)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 23.9¢	$108.88	$106.94	-$1.94	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 74.9¢	$103.78	$106.75	+$2.97	44% 30-38 (68)
SU suntori	Yesavg 77¢	$102.9	$102.21	-$0.69	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$61.8	$60.46	-$1.34	37% 957-1658 (2615)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 22.6¢	$35.43	$35.3	-$0.14	37% 353-603 (956)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 23.9¢	$22.81	$21.94	-$0.87	42% 991-1360 (2351)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$19.34	$19.34	-$0	59% 3763-2587 (6350)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$316.46

Value

$306.1

PnL

-$10.35

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$187.24

Value

$175.55

PnL

-$11.69

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$108.88

Value

$106.94

PnL

-$1.94

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$103.78

Value

$106.75

PnL

+$2.97

Record

44%

30-38 (68)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$102.9

Value

$102.21

PnL

-$0.69

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$61.8

Value

$60.46

PnL

-$1.34

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$35.43

Value

$35.3

PnL

-$0.14

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$22.81

Value

$21.94

PnL

-$0.87

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$19.34

Value

$19.34

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.