Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Haiti vs. United States: O/U 1.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $470 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$470.34

Combined PnL

-$16.24

Smart Money Entry

13.7¢ → 0.5¢

-96% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$204.86

Total Shares1,583

Combined PnL-$11.69

Over2 traders

Total Value$103

Total Shares103

Combined PnL-$4.54

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 83¢	$153.6	$162.48	+$8.89	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
└ Under leg	Underavg 14.8¢	$74.75	$83.16	+$8.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 83¢	$78.85	$79.33	+$0.48
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 15.2¢	$95.11	$72	-$23.1	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 14.8¢	$67.65	$59.41	-$8.24	39% 587-913 (1500)
dips.<$100	Overavg 96¢	$61.11	$58.89	-$1.06	47% 1028-1153 (2181)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 96¢	$47.59	$44.11	-$3.48	45% 707-867 (1574)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$32.93	$33.96	+$1.03	47% 974-1105 (2079)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$1.81	$20.78	+$18.97	46% 311-372 (683)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$17	$16.5	-$0.5	52% 895-837 (1732)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 15.4¢	$2.05	$2.2	+$0.15	42% 1054-1470 (2524)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$153.6

Value

$162.48

PnL

+$8.89

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

Both legs:

Under$74.7514.8¢+$8.41

Over$78.8583¢+$0.48

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.11

Value

$72

PnL

-$23.1

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.65

Value

$59.41

PnL

-$8.24

Record

39%

587-913 (1500)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$61.11

Value

$58.89

PnL

-$1.06

Record

47%

1028-1153 (2181)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$47.59

Value

$44.11

PnL

-$3.48

Record

45%

707-867 (1574)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.93

Value

$33.96

PnL

+$1.03

Record

47%

974-1105 (2079)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.81

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$18.97

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

1054-1470 (2524)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.