Will Haiti win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 91¢ · $923 held · ends Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$923.16

Combined PnL

-$140.34

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 90.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$734.94

Total Shares813

Combined PnL-$150.25

Yes3 traders

Total Value$188.22

Total Shares1,981

Combined PnL+$9.91

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 91¢	$919	$271.5	-$147.5	25% 45-136 (181)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 91¢	$232.83	$231.55	-$1.28	37% 970-1635 (2605)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$133.2	$140.6	+$7.4	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 90¢	$81	$80.55	-$0.45	37% 353-603 (956)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 91¢	$45.83	$45.58	-$0.25	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91¢	$45.71	$45.46	-$0.25	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 91¢	$44.32	$44.08	-$0.24	36% 948-1669 (2617)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$32	$33.78	+$1.78	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 91¢	$16.5	$16.23	-$0.27	36% 933-1644 (2577)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$13.11	$13.84	+$0.73	42% 995-1363 (2358)

donthackme

Invested

$919

Value

$271.5

PnL

-$147.5

Record

25%

45-136 (181)

MadridTime

Invested

$232.83

Value

$231.55

PnL

-$1.28

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.2

Value

$140.6

PnL

+$7.4

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$81

Value

$80.55

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$45.83

Value

$45.58

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$45.71

Value

$45.46

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$44.32

Value

$44.08

PnL

-$0.24

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$33.78

PnL

+$1.78

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.23

PnL

-$0.27

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.11

Value

$13.84

PnL

+$0.73

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.