Will Haiti vs. United States end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$102.95

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 87¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,502

Combined PnL-$87.64

Yes4 traders

Total Value$678.08

Total Shares5,034

Combined PnL-$15.31

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$26.77	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
DO donthackme	Noavg 87.8¢	$889.75	$561	-$128	25% 45-136 (181)
GC GC-P	Noavg 86¢	$552	$559.73	+$7.73	37% 353-603 (956)
NM NM-P	Noavg 86¢	$456.17	$462.8	+$6.62	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$323.13	$311.7	-$11.43	37% 960-1662 (2622)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$167.78	$166.67	-$1.11	37% 970-1635 (2605)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$165.12	$159.23	-$5.89	36% 948-1669 (2617)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88¢	$44.2	$43.7	-$0.5	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 87¢	$43.82	$43.56	-$0.26	57% 704-522 (1226)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$37.36	$40.48	+$3.11	49% 3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,364.45

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$26.77

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

donthackme

Invested

$889.75

Value

$561

PnL

-$128

Record

25%

45-136 (181)

GC-P

Invested

$552

Value

$559.73

PnL

+$7.73

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

NM-P

Invested

$456.17

Value

$462.8

PnL

+$6.62

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$323.13

Value

$311.7

PnL

-$11.43

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$167.78

Value

$166.67

PnL

-$1.11

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$165.12

Value

$159.23

PnL

-$5.89

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$44.2

Value

$43.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$43.82

Value

$43.56

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.36

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$3.11

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.