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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Haiti vs. United States: Both Teams to Score

Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

9

No 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$711.69

Combined PnL

-$94.92

Smart Money Signal

No

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders
Total Value$566.6
Total Shares567
Combined PnL+$199.77
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares540
Combined PnL-$294.7
No — 44%Yes — 56%
LI
LightParadox
No

Invested

$207.07

Value

$264.14

PnL

+$57.07

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

SN
SnakeBall
No

Invested

$122.46

Value

$255.12

PnL

+$132.66

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

dips.ARB<$100
Yes

Invested

$419.68

Value

$145.09

PnL

-$274.59

Record

48%

1108-1208 (2316)

Both legs:

No$132.1391.1¢+$12.96
Yes$287.5567.1¢-$287.55
0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100
No

Invested

$37.58

Value

$47.33

PnL

+$9.75

Record

40%

624-947 (1571)

alpheclabs2CTR
Yes

Invested

$186.47

Value

—

PnL

-$150.57

Record

46%

326-390 (716)

CI
cigarettesCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$55.6

Value

—

PnL

-$55.6

Record

53%

7302-6365 (13667)

FL
FlaznorpCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$47.02

Value

—

PnL

-$47.02

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

US
User7429CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$27.93

Value

—

PnL

-$27.93

Record

42%

371-518 (889)

0X
0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$13.58

Value

—

PnL

-$13.58

Record

80%

43-11 (54)

VeryLucky888<$100
No

Invested

$81.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x781d86a2...cb2bfd
Slug
conl-hai-usa-2026-11-14-btts

Traders in this Market

LI

LightParadox

No — $264.14

+$57.07
SN

SnakeBall

No — $255.12

+$132.66

dips.

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$274.59
0X

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

No — $47.33

+$9.75

alpheclabs2

CTR

Yes — $0

-$150.57
CI

cigarettes

CTR

Yes — $0

-$55.6
FL

Flaznorp

CTR

Yes — $0

-$47.02
US

User7429

CTR

Yes — $0

-$27.93
0X

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

CTR

Yes — $0

-$13.58

VeryLucky888

No — $0.01

+$0.29
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