Guatemala vs. Canada: O/U 5.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
2 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$261.04
86.8¢ → 83¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 75.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$293.93 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 75.8¢ | $938.06 | $978.87 | +$40.81 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 7.8¢ | $150.6 | $403.72 | +$253.12 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 91.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$220.65 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
 RN1 | Underavg 74.2¢ | $262.32 | $217.38 | -$44.94 | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Underavg 88.2¢ | $170.24 | $139.14 | -$31.11 | 48% 1014-1100 (2114) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 88.2¢ | $132.29 | $99.6 | -$32.7 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 32.2¢ | $37.95 | $39.54 | +$1.59 | |
SU suntori | Underavg 80.6¢ | $104.76 | $107.6 | +$2.84 | 46% 2333-2789 (5122) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 76.6¢ | $15.37 | $18.24 | +$2.87 | 43% 915-1235 (2150) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 77.5¢ | $12.61 | $12.61 | -$0 | 49% 1865-1975 (3840) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Overavg 11.9¢ | $1 | $0.76 | -$0.24 | 30% 95-225 (320) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 27.4¢ | $1.37 | $0.46 | -$0.91 | 45% 706-873 (1579) |
Invested
$1,088.66
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$293.93
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,367.59
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$220.65
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
RN1Invested
$262.32
Value
$217.38
PnL
-$44.94
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$170.24
Value
$139.14
PnL
-$31.11
Record
48%
1014-1100 (2114)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.76
Value
$107.6
PnL
+$2.84
Record
46%
2333-2789 (5122)
Invested
$15.37
Value
$18.24
PnL
+$2.87
Record
43%
915-1235 (2150)
Invested
$12.61
Value
$12.61
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
1865-1975 (3840)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$0.24
Record
30%
95-225 (320)
Invested
$1.37
Value
$0.46
PnL
-$0.91
Record
45%
706-873 (1579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.