Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guatemala vs. Canada: O/U 4.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 42¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$331.65

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 42¢

-16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,561

Combined PnL-$260.66

Over8 traders

Total Value$247.11

Total Shares382

Combined PnL-$70.99

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 45.1¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	+$175.23	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$218.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$42.94
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.7K	$558.89	+$431.14	64% 47-26 (73)
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.7¢	$199.33	$282.24	+$448.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$279.44	$276.65	-$17.67
RN1CTR	Underavg 39.7¢	$553.58	$543.04	-$10.53	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 65.5¢	$630.23	$382.3	-$247.94	54% 2013-1746 (3759)
poshposh	Overavg 56.3¢	$172.79	$175.68	+$2.89	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$83.03	$86.43	+$3.4	43% 915-1235 (2150)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 58.6¢	$31.15	$43.85	+$12.71	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$30.46	$26.33	-$4.13	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 75¢	$10	$11	+$1	39% 406-629 (1035)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 83¢	$9.76	$8.24	-$1.53	56% 426-340 (766)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 62¢	$8.72	$6.09	-$2.63	45% 706-873 (1579)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.8	$6	-$3.8	53% 750-669 (1419)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$4.65	$4.72	+$0.07	74% 207-71 (278)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 30¢	$1	$1.63	+$0.63	30% 95-225 (320)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.75	$1.53	-$1.22	44% 599-749 (1348)
SU suntori	Overavg 43¢	$175.23	$1.33	-$80.57	46% 2333-2789 (5122)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,602.11

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$175.23

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Both legs:

Over$1,053.6747.7¢+$218.17

Under$1,243.9545.1¢-$42.94

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,665.33

Value

$558.89

PnL

+$431.14

Record

64%

47-26 (73)

Both legs:

Under$199.3335.7¢+$448.81

Over$279.4450¢-$17.67

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$553.58

Value

$543.04

PnL

-$10.53

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$630.23

Value

$382.3

PnL

-$247.94

Record

54%

2013-1746 (3759)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$172.79

Value

$175.68

PnL

+$2.89

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.03

Value

$86.43

PnL

+$3.4

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$31.15

Value

$43.85

PnL

+$12.71

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.46

Value

$26.33

PnL

-$4.13

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$11

PnL

+$1

Record

39%

406-629 (1035)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.76

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$1.53

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$8.72

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$2.63

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$9.8

Value

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.07

Record

74%

207-71 (278)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

30%

95-225 (320)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$1.22

Record

44%

599-749 (1348)

suntori

Over

Invested

$175.23

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$80.57

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.