Guatemala vs. Canada: O/U 3.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$540.31

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 100¢

+135% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,255

Combined PnL+$485.2

Under6 traders

Total Value$317.19

Total Shares1,391

Combined PnL+$55.11

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 42.3¢	$589.17	$1.1K	+$465.88	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$326.34	$314.57	-$11.77	54% 2013-1746 (3759)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.4¢	$116.46	$239.37	+$122.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$209.87	$75.2	-$134.68
MO mouzsynapseARB<$100	Underavg 17¢	$116.84	$220.04	+$103.21	39% 107-164 (271)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30¢	$57.99	$159.46	+$101.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 17¢	$58.85	$60.58	+$1.73
RN1CTR	Underavg 17.6¢	$198.68	$201.55	+$2.86	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$24.76	$69.64	+$44.88	44% 599-749 (1348)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 44.5¢	$29.57	$29.9	+$0.33	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 36¢	$8.9	$24.7	+$15.8	62% 104-63 (167)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 86¢	$11.67	$7.46	-$4.21	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 21.9¢	$3.5	$7.2	+$3.7	45% 706-873 (1579)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 30¢	$2.56	$5.8	+$3.24	36% 890-1596 (2486)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$2.16	$5.4	+$3.24	47% 860-963 (1823)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$3.4	$3.5	+$0.1	53% 750-669 (1419)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 32¢	$2.85	$2.67	+$4.06	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 57¢	$1	$1.42	+$0.42	30% 95-225 (320)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$589.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$465.88

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$326.34

Value

$314.57

PnL

-$11.77

Record

54%

2013-1746 (3759)

Both legs:

Over$116.4639.4¢+$122.91

Under$209.8753¢-$134.68

mouzsynapseARB<$100

Under

Invested

$116.84

Value

$220.04

PnL

+$103.21

Record

39%

107-164 (271)

Both legs:

Over$57.9930¢+$101.47

Under$58.8517¢+$1.73

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$198.68

Value

$201.55

PnL

+$2.86

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.76

Value

$69.64

PnL

+$44.88

Record

44%

599-749 (1348)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.57

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$15.8

Record

62%

104-63 (167)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$11.67

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$4.21

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$3.7

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$2.56

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$3.24

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.16

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$3.24

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$4.06

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.42

Record

30%

95-225 (320)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.