Guatemala vs. Canada: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $673 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$672.58

Combined PnL

-$285.62

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$654.87

Total Shares655

Combined PnL-$107.56

Under6 traders

Total Value$17.71

Total Shares496

Combined PnL-$178.06

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 69.6¢	$626.01	$471.93	-$154.08	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
poshposh	Overavg 55.8¢	$118.8	$159.78	+$40.98	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$16.61	$21.99	+$5.38	45% 706-873 (1579)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$112.16	$14.39	-$97.77	54% 2013-1746 (3759)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$6.75	$2.4	-$4.35	56% 426-340 (766)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 86¢	$1	$1.16	+$0.16	30% 95-225 (320)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$0.8	-$1.5	43% 915-1235 (2150)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$43.81	$0.07	-$43.74	44% 599-749 (1348)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$26.14	$0.04	-$26.1	47% 860-963 (1823)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 21.7¢	$4.62	$0.01	-$4.61	49% 1865-1975 (3840)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$626.01

Value

$471.93

PnL

-$154.08

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$118.8

Value

$159.78

PnL

+$40.98

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$16.61

Value

$21.99

PnL

+$5.38

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$112.16

Value

$14.39

PnL

-$97.77

Record

54%

2013-1746 (3759)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.75

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$4.35

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

30%

95-225 (320)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$1.5

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.81

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$43.74

Record

44%

599-749 (1348)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.14

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$26.1

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.62

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.61

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.