Guatemala vs. Canada: O/U 1.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$161.29

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,447

Combined PnL+$297.49

Under4 traders

Total Value$85.16

Total Shares3,209

Combined PnL-$458.78

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 79¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$273.4	52% 499-463 (962)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 15.4¢	$571.37	$68.96	-$422.8	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 75.4¢	$44.35	$58.78	+$14.43	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 97¢	$38.75	$39.93	+$1.18	62% 104-63 (167)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 81.8¢	$19.75	$23.04	+$3.29	54% 2013-1746 (3759)
dips.<$100	Overavg 74¢	$14.8	$19.99	+$5.19	47% 860-963 (1823)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$26.29	$9.86	-$16.43	36% 879-1566 (2445)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$17.5	$6.3	-$11.2	56% 426-340 (766)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 9.6¢	$8.38	$0.04	-$8.34	49% 1865-1975 (3840)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,030.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$273.4

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$571.37

Value

$68.96

PnL

-$422.8

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$44.35

Value

$58.78

PnL

+$14.43

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$38.75

Value

$39.93

PnL

+$1.18

Record

62%

104-63 (167)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$19.75

Value

$23.04

PnL

+$3.29

Record

54%

2013-1746 (3759)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$14.8

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$5.19

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.29

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$16.43

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.5

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$11.2

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.38

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.34

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.