Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Guatemala — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Guatemala
Spread: Canada (-3.5)
Resolved Guatemala. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Guatemala. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Guatemala 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$835.17
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Guatemalaavg 64¢ | $1.7K | $2.5K | +$851.93 | 49% 3640-3753 (7393) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Canadaavg 34.8¢ | $907.33 | $118.57 | -$788.76 | 54% 2027-1761 (3788) |
| └ Guatemala leg | Guatemalaavg 74.2¢ | $87.92 | $118.57 | +$30.65 | |
| └ Canada leg | Canadaavg 34.8¢ | $819.41 | — | -$819.41 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Guatemalaavg 50.4¢ | $46.29 | $91.86 | +$45.57 | 43% 949-1283 (2232) |
 RN1<$100 | Guatemalaavg 47¢ | $38.55 | $82.08 | +$43.53 | 56% 5169-4141 (9310) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Guatemalaavg 49.7¢ | $17.79 | $35.82 | +$18.03 | 48% 1953-2074 (4027) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Canadaavg 45.1¢ | $96.63 | — | -$96.63 | 48% 1031-1119 (2150) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Canadaavg 29¢ | $27.27 | — | -$27.27 | 61% 1416-895 (2311) |
Invested
$1,658.22
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$851.93
Record
49%
3640-3753 (7393)
Invested
$907.33
Value
$118.57
PnL
-$788.76
Record
54%
2027-1761 (3788)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.29
Value
$91.86
PnL
+$45.57
Record
43%
949-1283 (2232)
RN1<$100Invested
$38.55
Value
$82.08
PnL
+$43.53
Record
56%
5169-4141 (9310)
Invested
$17.79
Value
$35.82
PnL
+$18.03
Record
48%
1953-2074 (4027)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$96.63
Value
—
PnL
-$96.63
Record
48%
1031-1119 (2150)
Invested
$27.27
Value
—
PnL
-$27.27
Record
61%
1416-895 (2311)