Canada leading at halftime?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 30%
$1.6K
-$191.86
89.5¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KM kmak1 | Yesavg 89.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$143.25 | — 3-8 (11) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 87.4¢ | $152.84 | $96.15 | -$56.69 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 13.8¢ | $145.68 | $66.92 | -$78.76 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 71.1¢ | $15.44 | $21.71 | +$6.27 | 46% 2333-2789 (5122) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 11¢ | $158.96 | $0.72 | -$158.24 | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $42.16 | $0.26 | -$41.9 | 45% 258-310 (568) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.5¢ | $1 | $0.03 | -$0.97 | 30% 95-225 (320) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $4.11 | $0.02 | -$4.09 | 48% 1014-1100 (2114) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $2.2 | $0.01 | -$2.19 | 45% 706-873 (1579) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $3.55 | $0 | +$1.45 | 49% 1865-1975 (3840) |
Invested
$1,286.05
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$143.25
Record
—
3-8 (11)
Invested
$152.84
Value
$96.15
PnL
-$56.69
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Invested
$145.68
Value
$66.92
PnL
-$78.76
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$15.44
Value
$21.71
PnL
+$6.27
Record
46%
2333-2789 (5122)
RN1CTRInvested
$158.96
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$158.24
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$42.16
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$41.9
Record
45%
258-310 (568)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.97
Record
30%
95-225 (320)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.11
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.09
Record
48%
1014-1100 (2114)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.19
Record
45%
706-873 (1579)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$0
PnL
+$1.45
Record
49%
1865-1975 (3840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.