Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Guatemala vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 2.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $425 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$425.42

Combined PnL

-$2.32

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$338.08

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$231.86

Under5 traders

Total Value$87.34

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$234.18

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 30¢	$84	$279.86	+$195.86	98% 420-7 (427)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 82.1¢	$295.86	$86.85	-$209.02	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
dips.<$100	Overavg 39¢	$9.75	$24.99	+$15.24	47% 860-963 (1823)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 38¢	$11.55	$20.93	+$12.03	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.1	$5.12	+$3.02	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1	$4.35	+$3.35	30% 95-225 (320)
RN1<$100	Overavg 5¢	$0.47	$2.84	+$2.37	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 85¢	$8.05	$0.47	-$7.57	56% 426-340 (766)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$13.46	$0.01	-$13.44	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Underavg 78¢	$3.9	$0	-$3.9	82% 643-144 (787)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$0.25	$0	-$0.25	45% 706-873 (1579)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$84

Value

$279.86

PnL

+$195.86

Record

98%

420-7 (427)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$295.86

Value

$86.85

PnL

-$209.02

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$9.75

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$15.24

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$11.55

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$12.03

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$2.1

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$3.02

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$3.35

Record

30%

95-225 (320)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$0.47

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$2.37

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.05

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$7.57

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$13.44

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.9

Value

PnL

-$3.9

Record

82%

643-144 (787)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.25

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.