Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guatemala vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $696 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
10
Under 40%
$696.07
-$249.51
62.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Overavg 38.5¢ | $108.94 | $282.75 | +$173.81 | 46% 2333-2789 (5122) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 63¢ | $644.11 | $182.2 | -$455.32 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
 poshposh | Overavg 32.6¢ | $53.78 | $163.79 | +$110.02 | 48% 1014-1100 (2114) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $16.17 | $42.5 | +$26.33 | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $2.43 | $10.13 | +$7.69 | 53% 6885-6020 (12905) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $6.6 | $10 | +$3.4 | 61% 1409-891 (2300) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $4.6 | +$2.95 | 40% 25-38 (63) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 59.7¢ | $115.98 | $0.1 | -$115.88 | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $1.7 | $0 | -$1.7 | 49% 1865-1975 (3840) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $0.82 | $0 | -$0.82 | 45% 706-873 (1579) |
Invested
$108.94
Value
$282.75
PnL
+$173.81
Record
46%
2333-2789 (5122)
Invested
$644.11
Value
$182.2
PnL
-$455.32
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
poshposhInvested
$53.78
Value
$163.79
PnL
+$110.02
Record
48%
1014-1100 (2114)
Invested
$16.17
Value
$42.5
PnL
+$26.33
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
Invested
$2.43
Value
$10.13
PnL
+$7.69
Record
53%
6885-6020 (12905)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.4
Record
61%
1409-891 (2300)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$2.95
Record
40%
25-38 (63)
RN1CTRInvested
$115.98
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$115.88
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.7
Record
49%
1865-1975 (3840)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.82
Record
45%
706-873 (1579)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.