Guatemala vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $839 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$838.88

Combined PnL

$28.44

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$799.24

Total Shares801

Combined PnL+$148.92

Under5 traders

Total Value$39.64

Total Shares871

Combined PnL-$120.47

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	Overavg 80.9¢	$301.92	$372.92	+$71	51% 141-138 (279)
SH shiifoo	Overavg 83¢	$261.72	$315.17	+$53.45	61% 1409-891 (2300)
RN1<$100	Overavg 63¢	$37.23	$57.92	+$20.68	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 92¢	$37.44	$40.68	+$3.24	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 30.9¢	$50.18	$38.92	-$11.26	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 98¢	$7.41	$7.56	+$0.15	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 92¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	45% 706-873 (1579)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$0.43	$0.37	-$0.06	43% 915-1235 (2150)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$83.74	$0.28	-$83.46	3% 8-226 (234)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$24.82	$0.07	-$24.75	47% 860-963 (1823)
Junior112CTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$0.95	$0	-$0.95	— 0-3 (3)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

Over

Invested

$301.92

Value

$372.92

PnL

+$71

Record

51%

141-138 (279)

shiifoo

Over

Invested

$261.72

Value

$315.17

PnL

+$53.45

Record

61%

1409-891 (2300)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$37.23

Value

$57.92

PnL

+$20.68

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$37.44

Value

$40.68

PnL

+$3.24

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.18

Value

$38.92

PnL

-$11.26

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.06

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.74

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$83.46

Record

8-226 (234)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.82

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$24.75

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

Junior112CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.95

Value

PnL

-$0.95

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.