Guatemala vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$104.02

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,569

Combined PnL+$136.07

No5 traders

Total Value$69.8

Total Shares593

Combined PnL-$32.06

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Yesavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$6.5	98% 420-7 (427)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Yesavg 95.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$22.28	79% 22-6 (28)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$54.47	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$747.07	$831.86	+$84.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.9¢	$351.07	$320.75	-$30.32
poshposh	Yesavg 50.8¢	$206.48	$357.19	+$150.7	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 48.1¢	$150.1	$169.89	+$19.8	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	Yesavg 55¢	$103.52	$88.46	-$15.06	51% 141-138 (279)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$52.7	$86.7	+$34	45% 706-873 (1579)
└ No leg	Noavg 10.6¢	$10.45	$52.47	+$42.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58¢	$42.25	$34.23	-$8.02
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 47.3¢	$41.19	$40.92	-$0.27	37% 924-1557 (2481)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 52.4¢	$67.71	$38.5	+$0.95	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$28.2	$27.61	-$0.59	36% 890-1596 (2486)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$31.8	$26.4	-$5.4	56% 426-340 (766)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$19.84	$16.95	-$2.89	39% 293-459 (752)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$4.76	$4.67	-$0.09	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$3.09	$3.25	+$0.16	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$1	$1	+$0	30% 95-225 (320)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 4.3¢	$18.71	$0.22	-$18.49	47% 860-963 (1823)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$9.03	$0.01	-$9.02	39% 406-629 (1035)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Yes

Invested

$1,287

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$6.5

Record

98%

420-7 (427)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Yes

Invested

$1,342.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$22.28

Record

79%

22-6 (28)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,098.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$54.47

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Both legs:

No$747.0753¢+$84.79

Yes$351.0744.9¢-$30.32

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$206.48

Value

$357.19

PnL

+$150.7

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$150.1

Value

$169.89

PnL

+$19.8

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

Yes

Invested

$103.52

Value

$88.46

PnL

-$15.06

Record

51%

141-138 (279)

lryyyARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.7

Value

$86.7

PnL

+$34

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

Both legs:

Invested

$41.19

Value

$40.92

PnL

-$0.27

Record

37%

924-1557 (2481)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$67.71

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.2

Value

$27.61

PnL

-$0.59

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.8

Value

$26.4

PnL

-$5.4

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.84

Value

$16.95

PnL

-$2.89

Record

39%

293-459 (752)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

NordhavenCap<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

95-225 (320)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$18.71

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$18.49

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$9.03

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.02

Record

39%

406-629 (1035)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.