Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will St. Kitts and Nevis win on 2026-11-13?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 42¢ · $655 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$655.3
-$7.03
50.4¢ → 41.5¢
-18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Yesavg 49¢ | $245 | $292.5 | +$47.5 | 7% 4-57 (61) |
BA BayupatiCTR | Noavg 51¢ | $273.79 | $220.11 | -$53.68 | 12% 18-134 (152) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 41.8¢ | $97.92 | $100.55 | +$2.63 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41.8¢ | $77.15 | $75.67 | -$1.48 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $20.77 | $24.88 | +$4.11 | |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $17.02 | $17.32 | +$0.3 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $13.57 | $13.45 | -$0.12 | 41% 14-20 (34) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $7.78 | $6.38 | -$1.4 | 31% 75-170 (245) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.93 | +$0.82 | 62% 1373-845 (2218) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.05 | -$0.45 | — 8-11 (19) |
Invested
$245
Value
$292.5
PnL
+$47.5
Record
7%
4-57 (61)
Invested
$273.79
Value
$220.11
PnL
-$53.68
Record
12%
18-134 (152)
Invested
$97.92
Value
$100.55
PnL
+$2.63
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Both legs:
Invested
$17.02
Value
$17.32
PnL
+$0.3
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
Invested
$13.57
Value
$13.45
PnL
-$0.12
Record
41%
14-20 (34)
Invested
$7.78
Value
$6.38
PnL
-$1.4
Record
31%
75-170 (245)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.82
Record
62%
1373-845 (2218)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.45
Record
—
8-11 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.