Will Grenada win on 2026-11-13?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 92¢ · $889 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$888.54
$10.96
86.1¢ → 91.5¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 87¢ | $303.83 | $309.89 | +$6.07 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 87.8¢ | $278.44 | $290.15 | +$11.7 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 82¢ | $117.78 | $117.06 | -$0.72 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $128.51 | $88.84 | -$39.67 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.1¢ | $40.51 | $48.96 | +$8.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $88 | $39.88 | -$48.12 | |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $31.62 | $32.58 | +$0.96 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $35 | $32.31 | -$2.69 | 41% 91-133 (224) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $18.33 | $13.64 | -$4.7 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $4.07 | +$0.32 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
Invested
$303.83
Value
$309.89
PnL
+$6.07
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$278.44
Value
$290.15
PnL
+$11.7
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$117.78
Value
$117.06
PnL
-$0.72
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$128.51
Value
$88.84
PnL
-$39.67
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.62
Value
$32.58
PnL
+$0.96
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
Invested
$35
Value
$32.31
PnL
-$2.69
Record
41%
91-133 (224)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$13.64
PnL
-$4.7
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$0.32
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.