Spread: Guyana (-3.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Guyana (50%) · Guyana at 53¢ · $804 held · ends Nov 12

Guyana53¢Cayman Islands47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Guyana

Consensus Traders

Guyana 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$803.53

Combined PnL

$26.29

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 53¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGuyana at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Guyana

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Guyana53%

Cayman Islands47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Guyana4 traders

Total Value$313.6

Total Shares597

Combined PnL+$35.41

Cayman Islands4 traders

Total Value$125.25

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$9.12

Guyana — 50%Cayman Islands — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Guyana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGuyana 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Guyana 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Cayman Islandsavg 53.4¢	$391.94	$364.68	-$27.26	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
└ Cayman Islands leg	Cayman Islandsavg 53.4¢	$312.35	$280.66	-$31.69
└ Guyana leg	Guyanaavg 49.3¢	$79.59	$84.02	+$4.43
LI Limousin	Guyanaavg 46¢	$151.8	$174.9	+$23.1	32% 524-1097 (1621)
LI LightParadox<$100	Guyanaavg 48.1¢	$83.56	$92.05	+$8.49	33% 544-1120 (1664)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cayman Islandsavg 50¢	$70.8	$66.55	-$4.25	33% 546-1093 (1639)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Cayman Islandsavg 53.9¢	$50.12	$46.5	-$3.62	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Guyanaavg 50¢	$355	$44	+$3.52	83% 93-19 (112)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cayman Islandsavg 53.7¢	$8.05	$7.2	-$0.85	41% 534-766 (1300)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Cayman Islandsavg 54¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	50% 1216-1232 (2448)
VE Venusian<$100	Guyanaavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.65	+$0.3	32% 530-1111 (1641)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Cayman Islands

Invested

$391.94

Value

$364.68

PnL

-$27.26

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

Both legs:

Cayman Islands$312.3553.4¢-$31.69

Guyana$79.5949.3¢+$4.43

Limousin

Guyana

Invested

$151.8

Value

$174.9

PnL

+$23.1

Record

32%

524-1097 (1621)

LightParadox<$100

Guyana

Invested

$83.56

Value

$92.05

PnL

+$8.49

Record

33%

544-1120 (1664)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cayman Islands

Invested

$70.8

Value

$66.55

PnL

-$4.25

Record

33%

546-1093 (1639)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Cayman Islands

Invested

$50.12

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$3.62

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Guyana

Invested

$355

Value

$44

PnL

+$3.52

Record

83%

93-19 (112)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cayman Islands

Invested

$8.05

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$0.85

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Cayman Islands

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

1216-1232 (2448)

Venusian<$100

Guyana

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.3

Record

32%

530-1111 (1641)

Research grade

NeutralGuyana at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Guyana

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Guyana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGuyana 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Guyana 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Guyana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.