Will Guyana win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$2.5K
$18.28
92.1¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 92¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$23.14 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 92.5¢ | $852.52 | $852.19 | -$0.33 | 55% 1627-1324 (2951) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 7.9¢ | $193.76 | $183.32 | -$10.44 | 57% 12-9 (21) |
SE sentrio | Yesavg 92¢ | $172.74 | $174.01 | +$1.27 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 90¢ | $116.95 | $120.9 | +$3.95 | 42% 290-404 (694) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 92.4¢ | $44.36 | $44.64 | +$0.28 | 53% 177-159 (336) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 5.9¢ | $2.06 | $2.46 | +$0.4 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
Invested
$1,062.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$23.14
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$852.52
Value
$852.19
PnL
-$0.33
Record
55%
1627-1324 (2951)
Invested
$193.76
Value
$183.32
PnL
-$10.44
Record
57%
12-9 (21)
Invested
$172.74
Value
$174.01
PnL
+$1.27
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$116.95
Value
$120.9
PnL
+$3.95
Record
42%
290-404 (694)
Invested
$44.36
Value
$44.64
PnL
+$0.28
Record
53%
177-159 (336)
Invested
$2.06
Value
$2.46
PnL
+$0.4
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.