Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.8K
-$3.08
98¢ → 97.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 98¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | +$4.92 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 98¢ | $668.12 | $666.54 | -$1.58 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $27.06 | $26.99 | -$0.07 | 32% 489-1029 (1518) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $7.43 | $8.65 | +$1.22 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $5.05 | $5.44 | +$0.39 | 58% 80-59 (139) |
MA makerview00CTR<$100 | Yesavg 81.5¢ | $8.15 | $0.18 | -$7.97 | — |
Invested
$1,519.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$4.92
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$668.12
Value
$666.54
PnL
-$1.58
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$27.06
Value
$26.99
PnL
-$0.07
Record
32%
489-1029 (1518)
Invested
$7.43
Value
$8.65
PnL
+$1.22
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.44
PnL
+$0.39
Record
58%
80-59 (139)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$7.97
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.