Cayman Islands vs. Guyana: Both Teams to Score

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$109.95

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,971

Combined PnL+$365.35

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.49

Total Shares3,112

Combined PnL-$475.31

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 81.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$101.28	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 83¢	$664	$796	+$132	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 85.8¢	$659.78	$765.26	+$105.49	33% 327-665 (992)
poshposh	Noavg 83¢	$124.5	$149.25	+$24.75	48% 590-645 (1235)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$35.29	$37.13	+$1.84	41% 589-849 (1438)
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$477.87	$15.24	-$462.62	— 0-13 (13)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$12.69	$5	-$7.69	35% 221-416 (637)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$8.24	$3.25	-$4.99	32% 565-1192 (1757)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,109.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$101.28

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

cigarettes

Invested

$664

Value

$796

PnL

+$132

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$659.78

Value

$765.26

PnL

+$105.49

Record

33%

327-665 (992)

poshposh

Invested

$124.5

Value

$149.25

PnL

+$24.75

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$35.29

Value

$37.13

PnL

+$1.84

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

Winning2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$477.87

Value

$15.24

PnL

-$462.62

Record

—

0-13 (13)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.69

Value

PnL

-$7.69

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.24

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$4.99

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.