Barbados vs. Guadeloupe: O/U 3.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 86¢ · $700 held · ended Nov 12

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$700.27

Combined PnL

$69.67

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$130.05

Total Shares703

Combined PnL+$39.05

Under6 traders

Total Value$86

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$30.63

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$612.72	$484.22	-$128.51	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.3¢	$256.51	$353.08	+$96.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.2¢	$356.22	$131.14	-$225.08
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 11¢	$66.64	$102.99	+$36.35	33% 327-665 (992)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 45.3¢	$12.65	$23.18	+$10.54	48% 590-645 (1235)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 45¢	$12.03	$22.19	+$10.16	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$17.74	$18.25	+$0.51	33% 563-1169 (1732)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 64¢	$12.8	$16.6	+$3.8	83% 415-84 (499)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 65¢	$9.41	$11.58	+$2.17	41% 589-849 (1438)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 61.3¢	$6.13	$8.21	+$2.07	44% 431-541 (972)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.35	$4.24	+$1.89	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$4.18	$3.74	+$1	45% 563-680 (1243)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$2.09	$3.23	+$1.14	43% 374-496 (870)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$1.8	$1.85	+$0.05	33% 585-1187 (1772)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$612.72

Value

$484.22

PnL

-$128.51

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Under$256.5160.3¢+$96.57

Over$356.2246.2¢-$225.08

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$66.64

Value

$102.99

PnL

+$36.35

Record

33%

327-665 (992)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$12.65

Value

$23.18

PnL

+$10.54

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$12.03

Value

$22.19

PnL

+$10.16

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.74

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.51

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$12.8

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$3.8

Record

83%

415-84 (499)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$9.41

Value

$11.58

PnL

+$2.17

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$6.13

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$2.07

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$1.89

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$1

Record

45%

563-680 (1243)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.09

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$1.14

Record

43%

374-496 (870)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.