Will Guadeloupe win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 59¢ · $601 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$601.02
$5.57
57.7¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 57.7¢ | $420.39 | $359.45 | +$6.56 | 51% 2468-2344 (4812) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $62.79 | $63.2 | +$0.42 | 41% 525-744 (1269) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $62.32 | $61.58 | -$0.74 | 55% 1628-1331 (2959) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $45.12 | $44.58 | -$0.54 | 32% 524-1101 (1625) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $39.48 | $39.01 | -$0.47 | 32% 522-1096 (1618) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $29.4 | $29.4 | +$0 | 52% 180-163 (343) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.9 | +$0.1 | 33% 531-1071 (1602) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $12.82 | $0.9 | +$0.24 | 50% 1181-1203 (2384) |
Invested
$420.39
Value
$359.45
PnL
+$6.56
Record
51%
2468-2344 (4812)
Invested
$62.79
Value
$63.2
PnL
+$0.42
Record
41%
525-744 (1269)
Invested
$62.32
Value
$61.58
PnL
-$0.74
Record
55%
1628-1331 (2959)
Invested
$45.12
Value
$44.58
PnL
-$0.54
Record
32%
524-1101 (1625)
Invested
$39.48
Value
$39.01
PnL
-$0.47
Record
32%
522-1096 (1618)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
180-163 (343)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
33%
531-1071 (1602)
Invested
$12.82
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
1181-1203 (2384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.