Will Barbados win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.2K
-$4.51
67.6¢ → 66.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 67.9¢ | $529.85 | $477.54 | -$7.34 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $225.7 | $233.06 | +$7.36 | 31% 412-897 (1309) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 68¢ | $182.34 | $179.65 | -$2.68 | 39% 162-258 (420) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 66¢ | $145.59 | $146.69 | +$1.1 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 67.6¢ | $103.2 | $101.55 | -$1.66 | 39% 395-620 (1015) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $29.35 | $28.7 | -$0.65 | 59% 3479-2370 (5849) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $29.32 | $28.67 | -$0.65 | 21% 100-384 (484) |
Invested
$529.85
Value
$477.54
PnL
-$7.34
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$225.7
Value
$233.06
PnL
+$7.36
Record
31%
412-897 (1309)
Invested
$182.34
Value
$179.65
PnL
-$2.68
Record
39%
162-258 (420)
Invested
$145.59
Value
$146.69
PnL
+$1.1
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$103.2
Value
$101.55
PnL
-$1.66
Record
39%
395-620 (1015)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$28.7
PnL
-$0.65
Record
59%
3479-2370 (5849)
Invested
$29.32
Value
$28.67
PnL
-$0.65
Record
21%
100-384 (484)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.