Spread: Cuba (-3.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bonaire (40%) · Bonaire at 81¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Cuba19¢Bonaire81¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bonaire

Consensus Traders

Bonaire 40%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$248.48

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 81¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBonaire at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bonaire

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cuba19%

Bonaire81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bonaire4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,788

Combined PnL+$424.03

Cuba6 traders

Total Value$969.21

Total Shares3,135

Combined PnL-$175.55

Bonaire — 40%Cuba — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Bonaire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCuba 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Cuba 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Bonaireavg 63.3¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$201.26	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Bonaireavg 69.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$189.67	56% 92-73 (165)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR	Cubaavg 36.7¢	$686.01	$690.8	+$4.8	60% 147-97 (244)
BI biying88888	Bonaireavg 62.9¢	$353.66	$359.68	+$6.02	42% 169-231 (400)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cubaavg 35.6¢	$292.68	$180.88	-$111.8	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
BI biying99999	Bonaireavg 62.5¢	$99.33	$126.41	+$27.08	30% 73-167 (240)
LI LimousinCTR	Cubaavg 38¢	$132.3	$76.59	-$55.71	33% 539-1116 (1655)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Cubaavg 37¢	$26.58	$14.73	-$11.86	46% 443-515 (958)
poshposhCTR<$100	Cubaavg 26.1¢	$5.53	$4.35	-$1.18	47% 549-607 (1156)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cubaavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.85	+$0.2	32% 542-1134 (1676)

GoalLineGhost

Bonaire

Invested

$2,092.5

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$201.26

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

lukibazdonauki754

Bonaire

Invested

$1,148

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$189.67

Record

56%

92-73 (165)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR

Cuba

Invested

$686.01

Value

$690.8

PnL

+$4.8

Record

60%

147-97 (244)

biying88888

Bonaire

Invested

$353.66

Value

$359.68

PnL

+$6.02

Record

42%

169-231 (400)

FlaznorpCTR

Cuba

Invested

$292.68

Value

$180.88

PnL

-$111.8

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

biying99999

Bonaire

Invested

$99.33

Value

$126.41

PnL

+$27.08

Record

30%

73-167 (240)

LimousinCTR

Cuba

Invested

$132.3

Value

$76.59

PnL

-$55.71

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Cuba

Invested

$26.58

Value

$14.73

PnL

-$11.86

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

poshposhCTR<$100

Cuba

Invested

$5.53

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$1.18

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cuba

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.2

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

Research grade

NeutralBonaire at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bonaire

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Bonaire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCuba 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Cuba 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bonaire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.