Spread: Cuba (-2.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bonaire (71%) · Bonaire at 61¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 12

Cuba39¢Bonaire61¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bonaire

Consensus Traders

Bonaire 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$639.67

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 61¢

+26% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBonaire at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bonaire

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cuba39%

Bonaire61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bonaire10 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares14,812

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Cuba4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,092

Combined PnL-$362.35

Bonaire — 71%Cuba — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Bonaire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBonaire 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBonaire 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bonaire 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Cubaavg 51.9¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$11.87	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
└ Bonaire leg	Bonaireavg 44.3¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$703.17
└ Cuba leg	Cubaavg 51.9¢	$3.0K	$2.3K	-$715.04
LU lukibazdonauki754	Bonaireavg 59.7¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$46.54	56% 92-73 (165)
FL Flaznorp	Bonaireavg 41.8¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$429.68	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR	Cubaavg 55.3¢	$1.2K	$854.53	-$341.59	60% 147-97 (244)
poshposh	Bonaireavg 41.8¢	$777.22	$823.06	+$45.84	47% 549-607 (1156)
LU LuckyLoo	Bonaireavg 39¢	$717.03	$808.96	+$91.93	36% 209-370 (579)
LI Limousin	Bonaireavg 44.2¢	$539.09	$737.19	+$198.11	33% 539-1116 (1655)
LI LightParadox	Bonaireavg 42¢	$357.05	$514.32	+$157.27	33% 556-1141 (1697)
BI biying88888CTR	Cubaavg 42.3¢	$347	$319.8	-$27.2	42% 169-231 (400)
MA MadridTime	Bonaireavg 41¢	$96.37	$130.45	+$34.08	34% 564-1116 (1680)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Cubaavg 49.9¢	$51.56	$57.9	+$6.34	30% 73-167 (240)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cubaavg 55¢	$5	$5.1	+$0.1	41% 562-807 (1369)
HY hydra1248<$100	Bonaireavg 53.4¢	$4.48	$3.69	-$0.79	78% 125-36 (161)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100	Bonaireavg 50.5¢	$4.24	$3.69	-$0.55	— 10-3 (13)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bonaireavg 46¢	$2.31	$2.21	-$0.1	49% 1261-1293 (2554)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Cuba

Invested

$4,913.87

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$11.87

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Both legs:

Bonaire$1,927.5844.3¢+$703.17

Cuba$2,986.2951.9¢-$715.04

lukibazdonauki754

Bonaire

Invested

$3,407.8

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$46.54

Record

56%

92-73 (165)

Flaznorp

Bonaire

Invested

$1,310.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$429.68

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR

Cuba

Invested

$1,196.12

Value

$854.53

PnL

-$341.59

Record

60%

147-97 (244)

poshposh

Bonaire

Invested

$777.22

Value

$823.06

PnL

+$45.84

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

LuckyLoo

Bonaire

Invested

$717.03

Value

$808.96

PnL

+$91.93

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

Limousin

Bonaire

Invested

$539.09

Value

$737.19

PnL

+$198.11

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

LightParadox

Bonaire

Invested

$357.05

Value

$514.32

PnL

+$157.27

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

biying88888CTR

Cuba

Invested

$347

Value

$319.8

PnL

-$27.2

Record

42%

169-231 (400)

MadridTime

Bonaire

Invested

$96.37

Value

$130.45

PnL

+$34.08

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

biying99999CTR<$100

Cuba

Invested

$51.56

Value

$57.9

PnL

+$6.34

Record

30%

73-167 (240)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cuba

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

hydra1248<$100

Bonaire

Invested

$4.48

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$0.79

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100

Bonaire

Invested

$4.24

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$0.55

Record

—

10-3 (13)

ferdinand2<$100

Bonaire

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

Research grade

NeutralBonaire at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bonaire

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Bonaire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBonaire 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBonaire 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bonaire 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bonaire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.