Spread: Cuba (-1.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cuba (30%) · Cuba at 71¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Cuba71¢Bonaire29¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cuba

Consensus Traders

Cuba 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$545.32

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 71¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCuba at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cuba

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cuba71%

Bonaire29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cuba3 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares7,697

Combined PnL+$185.68

Bonaire7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares7,604

Combined PnL+$359.64

Cuba — 30%Bonaire — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Cuba. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBonaire 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bonaire 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Cubaavg 77.6¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$81.26	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
└ Bonaire leg	Bonaireavg 26.8¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$305.61
└ Cuba leg	Cubaavg 77.6¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$224.35
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf	Cubaavg 78.3¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$12.8	60% 147-97 (244)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bonaireavg 25.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$289.29	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Cubaavg 76.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$26.14	56% 92-73 (165)
OM omnibus-076daa	Cubaavg 56.6¢	$454.97	$627.32	+$172.35	42% 291-408 (699)
poshposhCTR	Bonaireavg 21.3¢	$255.81	$264.81	+$9	47% 549-607 (1156)
VE VenusianCTR	Bonaireavg 22¢	$159.94	$232.64	+$72.7	32% 542-1134 (1676)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Bonaireavg 23¢	$197.9	$189.29	-$8.6	33% 556-1141 (1697)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bonaireavg 22.1¢	$12.81	$18.56	+$5.75	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bonaireavg 23¢	$11.96	$11.44	-$0.52	33% 539-1116 (1655)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bonaireavg 44¢	$15.95	$7.98	-$7.98	41% 562-807 (1369)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Cuba

Invested

$3,952.88

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$81.26

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Both legs:

Bonaire$1,938.2126.8¢+$305.61

Cuba$2,014.6677.6¢-$224.35

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf

Cuba

Invested

$3,912.79

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$12.8

Record

60%

147-97 (244)

FlaznorpCTR

Bonaire

Invested

$1,204.09

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$289.29

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

lukibazdonauki754

Cuba

Invested

$1,450.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$26.14

Record

56%

92-73 (165)

omnibus-076daa

Cuba

Invested

$454.97

Value

$627.32

PnL

+$172.35

Record

42%

291-408 (699)

poshposhCTR

Bonaire

Invested

$255.81

Value

$264.81

PnL

+$9

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

VenusianCTR

Bonaire

Invested

$159.94

Value

$232.64

PnL

+$72.7

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

LightParadoxCTR

Bonaire

Invested

$197.9

Value

$189.29

PnL

-$8.6

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Bonaire

Invested

$12.81

Value

$18.56

PnL

+$5.75

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bonaire

Invested

$11.96

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$0.52

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bonaire

Invested

$15.95

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$7.98

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

Research grade

NeutralCuba at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cuba

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Cuba. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBonaire 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bonaire 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cuba wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.