Bonaire vs. Cuba: 1st Half O/U 1.5

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Under (68%) · Under at 99¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 68%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$803.93

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 99.2¢

+117% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under15 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares12,250

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Over7 traders

Total Value$72.37

Total Shares8,042

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Under — 68%Over — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Underavg 39¢	$1.6K	$4.1K	+$2.5K	32% 542-1134 (1676)
poshposh	Underavg 40.1¢	$877.13	$1.7K	+$825.55	47% 549-607 (1156)
WH whosay	Underavg 91.5¢	$850.97	$922.15	+$71.18	66% 29-15 (44)
NO Notradecopy	Underavg 40¢	$500	$656.25	+$156.25	11% 21-177 (198)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Underavg 40¢	$500	$656.25	+$156.25	48% 21-23 (44)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 34.6¢	$358.85	$544.8	+$185.95	36% 209-370 (579)
bot-rapin	Underavg 71.9¢	$356.61	$491.92	+$135.31	100% 34-0 (34)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 40.5¢	$196.61	$481.22	+$284.61	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
itoney17	Underavg 95¢	$197.61	$201.77	+$4.16	— 1-0 (1)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 37.9¢	$143.9	$199.35	+$55.45	46% 443-515 (958)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 43¢	$64.5	$148.73	+$84.23	34% 564-1116 (1680)
dips.	Underavg 61.9¢	$131.45	$74.04	+$56.49	45% 544-659 (1203)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Underavg 64.8¢	$68.17	$69.77	+$1.6	55% 89-74 (163)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR	Overavg 60.5¢	$2.6K	$36.55	$-2.6K	60% 147-97 (244)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 40¢	$13.23	$32.79	+$19.56	33% 556-1141 (1697)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Overavg 61.2¢	$3.1K	$21.43	$-2.5K	56% 92-73 (165)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 76¢	$10.75	$10.68	-$0.08	44% 405-509 (914)
GT gt7238CTR	Overavg 25.9¢	$239.71	$7.87	-$231.85	6% 29-464 (493)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$6.84	$2.83	-$1.61	34% 206-396 (602)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 4.5¢	$16.72	$1.54	-$3.18	42% 353-481 (834)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Overavg 4.7¢	$7.2	$1.3	-$5.9	12% 14-105 (119)
SP spartachioCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$0.85	-$46.15	65% 13-7 (20)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$1,615.57

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$877.13

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$825.55

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

whosay

Under

Invested

$850.97

Value

$922.15

PnL

+$71.18

Record

66%

29-15 (44)

Notradecopy

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$656.25

PnL

+$156.25

Record

11%

21-177 (198)

GamblingAddict12345

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$656.25

PnL

+$156.25

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$358.85

Value

$544.8

PnL

+$185.95

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

bot-rapin

Under

Invested

$356.61

Value

$491.92

PnL

+$135.31

Record

100%

34-0 (34)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$196.61

Value

$481.22

PnL

+$284.61

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

itoney17

Under

Invested

$197.61

Value

$201.77

PnL

+$4.16

Record

—

1-0 (1)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$143.9

Value

$199.35

PnL

+$55.45

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$64.5

Value

$148.73

PnL

+$84.23

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

dips.

Under

Invested

$131.45

Value

$74.04

PnL

+$56.49

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Under

Invested

$68.17

Value

$69.77

PnL

+$1.6

Record

55%

89-74 (163)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR

Over

Invested

$2,599.53

Value

$36.55

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

60%

147-97 (244)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$13.23

Value

$32.79

PnL

+$19.56

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Over

Invested

$3,054.25

Value

$21.43

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

56%

92-73 (165)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$0.08

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

gt7238CTR

Over

Invested

$239.71

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$231.85

Record

29-464 (493)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.84

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$1.61

Record

34%

206-396 (602)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.72

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$3.18

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.2

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$5.9

Record

12%

14-105 (119)

spartachioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$46.15

Record

65%

13-7 (20)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.