Bonaire vs. Cuba: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$29.0K

Combined PnL

-$29.23

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 99.5¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 20 top traders (40%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$28.8K

Total Shares29,030

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Under12 traders

Total Value$204.69

Total Shares29,192

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Overavg 91.6¢	$11.8K	$12.9K	+$1.0K	56% 92-73 (165)
bot-rapin	Overavg 95.6¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$207.56	100% 34-0 (34)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Overavg 95.3¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$146.55	96% 53-2 (55)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf	Overavg 87.8¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$386.02	60% 147-97 (244)
WH whosay	Overavg 96.3¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$78.47	66% 29-15 (44)
E4 e46m3	Overavg 97.3¢	$113.22	$115.01	+$1.79	43% 2584-3425 (6009)
GO gotozer0<$100	Overavg 95¢	$54.02	$56.21	+$2.19	— 1-1 (2)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 7.8¢	$314.5	$48.57	-$265.93	46% 443-515 (958)
dips.CTR	Underavg 3.3¢	$185.93	$33.01	-$150.72	45% 544-659 (1203)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 11.3¢	$211.81	$22.49	-$189.32	36% 209-370 (579)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR	Underavg 4.7¢	$202.32	$21.35	-$180.97	55% 89-74 (163)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 10.4¢	$151.66	$17.58	-$134.08	47% 549-607 (1156)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 10¢	$334.14	$16.67	-$317.47	32% 542-1134 (1676)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 9¢	$271.49	$15.06	-$256.44	34% 564-1116 (1680)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 8.9¢	$202.06	$11.35	-$190.71	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 5.9¢	$83.24	$7.09	-$76.15	33% 539-1116 (1655)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$91.9	$5.74	-$86.16	33% 556-1141 (1697)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.94	+$0.24	66% 1793-926 (2719)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 2.2¢	$13.92	$3.17	-$10.75	42% 353-481 (834)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 5.4¢	$11.83	$2.62	-$9.21	49% 1261-1293 (2554)

lukibazdonauki754

Over

Invested

$11,837.77

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

56%

92-73 (165)

bot-rapin

Over

Invested

$5,047.43

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$207.56

Record

100%

34-0 (34)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Over

Invested

$3,953.83

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$146.55

Record

96%

53-2 (55)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf

Over

Invested

$2,897.47

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$386.02

Record

60%

147-97 (244)

whosay

Over

Invested

$3,084.65

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$78.47

Record

66%

29-15 (44)

e46m3

Over

Invested

$113.22

Value

$115.01

PnL

+$1.79

Record

43%

2584-3425 (6009)

gotozer0<$100

Over

Invested

$54.02

Value

$56.21

PnL

+$2.19

Record

—

1-1 (2)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$314.5

Value

$48.57

PnL

-$265.93

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$185.93

Value

$33.01

PnL

-$150.72

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$211.81

Value

$22.49

PnL

-$189.32

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR

Under

Invested

$202.32

Value

$21.35

PnL

-$180.97

Record

55%

89-74 (163)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$151.66

Value

$17.58

PnL

-$134.08

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$334.14

Value

$16.67

PnL

-$317.47

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$271.49

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$256.44

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$202.06

Value

$11.35

PnL

-$190.71

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.24

Value

$7.09

PnL

-$76.15

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.9

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$86.16

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.24

Record

66%

1793-926 (2719)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.92

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$10.75

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.83

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$9.21

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 20 top traders (40%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.