Bonaire vs. Cuba: Cuba 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.23

Smart Money Entry

93.4¢ → 99.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares11,129

Combined PnL+$596.17

Under5 traders

Total Value$77.95

Total Shares9,789

Combined PnL-$632.39

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Overavg 91.3¢	$5.7K	$6.2K	+$507.91	56% 92-73 (165)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Overavg 95.4¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$77.18	96% 53-2 (55)
bot-rapin	Overavg 97.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10.34	100% 34-0 (34)
WH whosay<$100	Overavg 98.1¢	$90.82	$91.56	+$0.74	66% 29-15 (44)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 5.7¢	$277.61	$53.17	-$224.44	46% 443-515 (958)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 8.8¢	$266.52	$15.16	-$251.36	33% 539-1116 (1655)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 9¢	$146.49	$8.14	-$138.35	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$17.82	$0.99	-$16.83	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Underavg 1.9¢	$1.9	$0.49	-$1.41	43% 2584-3425 (6009)

lukibazdonauki754

Over

Invested

$5,650.29

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$507.91

Record

56%

92-73 (165)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Over

Invested

$3,097.56

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$77.18

Record

96%

53-2 (55)

bot-rapin

Over

Invested

$1,553.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10.34

Record

100%

34-0 (34)

whosay<$100

Over

Invested

$90.82

Value

$91.56

PnL

+$0.74

Record

66%

29-15 (44)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$277.61

Value

$53.17

PnL

-$224.44

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$266.52

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$251.36

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$146.49

Value

$8.14

PnL

-$138.35

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.82

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$16.83

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

e46m3CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$1.41

Record

43%

2584-3425 (6009)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.