Will Cuba win on 2026-11-12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$1.7K
$3.22
87.1¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 87.1¢ | $940.73 | $950.96 | +$10.24 | 51% 2511-2408 (4919) |
 Basquetipster | Yesavg 88¢ | $199.25 | $201.51 | +$2.26 | 9% 8-80 (88) |
SE sentrio | Yesavg 88¢ | $170.52 | $172.71 | +$2.19 | 41% 534-766 (1300) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Yesavg 85.5¢ | $151.11 | $157.3 | +$6.19 | 52% 183-166 (349) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 12¢ | $134.88 | $112.4 | -$22.48 | 59% 13-9 (22) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 86¢ | $96.63 | $100.05 | +$3.42 | 42% 290-405 (695) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $47.85 | $49.23 | +$1.38 | 32% 524-1097 (1621) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.48 | +$0.02 | 55% 1636-1337 (2973) |
Invested
$940.73
Value
$950.96
PnL
+$10.24
Record
51%
2511-2408 (4919)
BasquetipsterInvested
$199.25
Value
$201.51
PnL
+$2.26
Record
9%
8-80 (88)
Invested
$170.52
Value
$172.71
PnL
+$2.19
Record
41%
534-766 (1300)
Invested
$151.11
Value
$157.3
PnL
+$6.19
Record
52%
183-166 (349)
Invested
$134.88
Value
$112.4
PnL
-$22.48
Record
59%
13-9 (22)
Invested
$96.63
Value
$100.05
PnL
+$3.42
Record
42%
290-405 (695)
Invested
$47.85
Value
$49.23
PnL
+$1.38
Record
32%
524-1097 (1621)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
1636-1337 (2973)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.