Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bonaire vs. Cuba: Both Teams to Score

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 0.1¢ · $504 held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$504.23

Combined PnL

-$179.12

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$318.95

Total Shares867

Combined PnL-$245.52

Yes4 traders

Total Value$185.27

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$66.4

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 58.7¢	$231.45	$290.29	+$58.84	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 35.9¢	$34.07	$82.8	+$52.91	45% 563-680 (1243)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 38.9¢	$54.47	$47.6	-$6.87	32% 565-1192 (1757)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$12.99	$36.1	+$23.11	44% 431-541 (972)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$23.72	$28.41	+$4.7	41% 589-849 (1438)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$21.53	$18.77	-$2.76	33% 585-1187 (1772)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Noavg 63¢	$290.52	$0.23	-$290.29	55% 93-75 (168)
GO gotozer0CTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$18.78	$0.01	-$18.77	— 4-1 (5)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$231.45

Value

$290.29

PnL

+$58.84

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.07

Value

$82.8

PnL

+$52.91

Record

45%

563-680 (1243)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.47

Value

$47.6

PnL

-$6.87

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.99

Value

$36.1

PnL

+$23.11

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$23.72

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$4.7

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.53

Value

$18.77

PnL

-$2.76

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Invested

$290.52

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$290.29

Record

55%

93-75 (168)

gotozer0CTR<$100

Invested

$18.78

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$18.77

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.