Will Bonaire win on 2026-11-12?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $545 held · ends Nov 12

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$545.37

Combined PnL

-$0.86

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 95.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$439.26

Total Shares456

Combined PnL-$0.92

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.4

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.1¢	$258.48	$258.22	-$0.27	47% 394-451 (845)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$133.49	$102.7	+$3.29	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.6¢	$80.73	$80.68	+$0.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.8¢	$18.83	$22.03	+$3.2
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 96¢	$83.84	$83.4	-$0.44	33% 503-1013 (1516)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 96¢	$60.96	$60.64	-$0.32	53% 177-159 (336)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96¢	$19.18	$19.08	-$0.1	32% 500-1044 (1544)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 96¢	$17.72	$17.93	+$0.21	41% 490-712 (1202)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$3.34	$3.4	+$0.06	50% 1105-1107 (2212)

SnakeBall

Invested

$258.48

Value

$258.22

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

394-451 (845)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$133.49

Value

$102.7

PnL

+$3.29

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

Both legs:

No$80.7395.6¢+$0.1

Yes$18.833.8¢+$3.2

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$83.84

Value

$83.4

PnL

-$0.44

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$60.96

Value

$60.64

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

177-159 (336)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$19.18

Value

$19.08

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

500-1044 (1544)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$17.72

Value

$17.93

PnL

+$0.21

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.