Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-11-12?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 12¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$566.87

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 11.5¢

-74% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,152

Combined PnL+$17.36

No6 traders

Total Value$195.32

Total Shares1,735

Combined PnL-$584.23

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rocko33	Yesavg 52.2¢	$219.06	$340.06	+$139.84	60% 43-29 (72)
dips.	Yesavg 86.9¢	$651.91	$325.56	-$57.35	46% 593-709 (1302)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Yesavg 71¢	$225.5	$225.53	+$0.03	34% 349-676 (1025)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Noavg 46.7¢	$675.48	$150.82	-$489.05	30% 233-531 (764)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 73¢	$102.38	$92.85	-$9.53	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
LR lryyyCTR	Noavg 41.6¢	$107.55	$32.15	-$75.4	45% 465-578 (1043)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$20	$26.77	+$6.77	35% 306-565 (871)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$15.3	$17.43	+$2.13	42% 662-917 (1579)
SM smithagent	Yesavg 83.8¢	$387	$10.03	-$65.97	43% 400-536 (936)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$5.65	$7.1	+$1.45	36% 269-473 (742)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 27.7¢	$15.66	$6.23	-$9.43	55% 1738-1449 (3187)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 26.1¢	$9.17	$3.86	-$5.31	54% 244-207 (451)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 30.7¢	$4.66	$1.67	-$2.99	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.65	$0.59	-$2.05	23% 193-656 (849)

Rocko33

Yes

Invested

$219.06

Value

$340.06

PnL

+$139.84

Record

60%

43-29 (72)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$651.91

Value

$325.56

PnL

-$57.35

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Yes

Invested

$225.5

Value

$225.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

SlickRick123CTR

Invested

$675.48

Value

$150.82

PnL

-$489.05

Record

30%

233-531 (764)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$102.38

Value

$92.85

PnL

-$9.53

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

lryyyCTR

Invested

$107.55

Value

$32.15

PnL

-$75.4

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$26.77

PnL

+$6.77

Record

35%

306-565 (871)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.3

Value

$17.43

PnL

+$2.13

Record

42%

662-917 (1579)

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$387

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$65.97

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.65

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$1.45

Record

36%

269-473 (742)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$9.43

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$9.17

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$5.31

Record

54%

244-207 (451)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$2.99

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$2.05

Record

23%

193-656 (849)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.