Antigua and Barbuda vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$150.34

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 97.5¢

+46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,441

Combined PnL-$110.2

Over5 traders

Total Value$249.88

Total Shares595

Combined PnL-$40.14

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 55¢	$455.51	$472.09	+$16.58	34% 349-676 (1025)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 89¢	$428.82	$293.91	-$134.91	55% 1738-1449 (3187)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 53.3¢	$304.11	$292.57	-$11.54	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
dips.	Underavg 86.1¢	$481.52	$288.68	+$1.74	46% 593-709 (1302)
CC ccllar	Underavg 45.7¢	$57.04	$104.89	+$47.85	41% 34-48 (82)
SM smithagent	Underavg 98¢	$181.87	$104.5	-$29	43% 400-536 (936)
FI FinalOrderCTR	Overavg 47¢	$100	$65.96	-$34.04	18% 7-32 (39)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Overavg 41.7¢	$103.48	$58.1	-$7.19	30% 233-531 (764)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 45.4¢	$50.65	$46.61	-$4.04	45% 465-578 (1043)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$34.59	$44.35	+$9.76	62% 1373-845 (2218)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 38.6¢	$39.49	$34.86	-$4.63	48% 652-699 (1351)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 53¢	$35.12	$34.45	-$0.66	42% 662-917 (1579)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 68¢	$34	$33.75	-$0.25	53% 6319-5588 (11907)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$455.51

Value

$472.09

PnL

+$16.58

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$428.82

Value

$293.91

PnL

-$134.91

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$304.11

Value

$292.57

PnL

-$11.54

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

dips.

Under

Invested

$481.52

Value

$288.68

PnL

+$1.74

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

ccllar

Under

Invested

$57.04

Value

$104.89

PnL

+$47.85

Record

41%

34-48 (82)

smithagent

Under

Invested

$181.87

Value

$104.5

PnL

-$29

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

FinalOrderCTR

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$65.96

PnL

-$34.04

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

SlickRick123CTR

Over

Invested

$103.48

Value

$58.1

PnL

-$7.19

Record

30%

233-531 (764)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.65

Value

$46.61

PnL

-$4.04

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.59

Value

$44.35

PnL

+$9.76

Record

62%

1373-845 (2218)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.49

Value

$34.86

PnL

-$4.63

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$35.12

Value

$34.45

PnL

-$0.66

Record

42%

662-917 (1579)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$34

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.