Will Antigua and Barbuda vs. Trinidad and Tobago end in a draw?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 92¢ · $355 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$354.76
$24.76
82.6¢ → 91.5¢
+11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SL SlickRick123 | Noavg 81¢ | $176.32 | $193.67 | +$17.35 | 30% 233-531 (764) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $71.28 | $78.32 | +$7.04 | 45% 465-578 (1043) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $44.64 | $42.72 | -$1.92 | 46% 593-709 (1302) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $12.82 | $14.36 | +$1.54 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $11.88 | $13.47 | +$1.59 | 33% 620-1253 (1873) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.65 | +$0.5 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.65 | +$0.5 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $4.76 | $2.91 | -$1.85 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
Invested
$176.32
Value
$193.67
PnL
+$17.35
Record
30%
233-531 (764)
Invested
$71.28
Value
$78.32
PnL
+$7.04
Record
45%
465-578 (1043)
dips.<$100Invested
$44.64
Value
$42.72
PnL
-$1.92
Record
46%
593-709 (1302)
Invested
$12.82
Value
$14.36
PnL
+$1.54
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$13.47
PnL
+$1.59
Record
33%
620-1253 (1873)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.5
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$2.91
PnL
-$1.85
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.