Will Antigua and Barbuda win on 2026-11-12?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$1.4K
$136.28
85.1¢ → 98.1¢
+15% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 87¢ | $562.15 | $628.38 | +$66.23 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 86¢ | $172 | $194.5 | +$22.5 | 53% 852-766 (1618) |
SL SlickRick123 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $142.8 | $174.12 | +$31.32 | 30% 233-531 (764) |
 tradecraft | Noavg 87¢ | $101.69 | $113.67 | +$11.98 | 23% 193-656 (849) |
LR lryyy | Noavg 88.1¢ | $117.15 | $109.4 | -$7.75 | 45% 465-578 (1043) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $60.88 | $75.9 | +$15.02 | 60% 43-29 (72) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $45.07 | $35.87 | -$9.2 | 46% 593-709 (1302) |
TH thirdt1me<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $22.35 | $32.45 | +$10.09 | 46% 180-208 (388) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $8.99 | $9.09 | +$0.1 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $4.55 | +$0.05 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $4.76 | $0.7 | -$4.06 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
Invested
$562.15
Value
$628.38
PnL
+$66.23
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
VeryLucky888Invested
$172
Value
$194.5
PnL
+$22.5
Record
53%
852-766 (1618)
Invested
$142.8
Value
$174.12
PnL
+$31.32
Record
30%
233-531 (764)
tradecraftInvested
$101.69
Value
$113.67
PnL
+$11.98
Record
23%
193-656 (849)
Invested
$117.15
Value
$109.4
PnL
-$7.75
Record
45%
465-578 (1043)
Invested
$60.88
Value
$75.9
PnL
+$15.02
Record
60%
43-29 (72)
dips.<$100Invested
$45.07
Value
$35.87
PnL
-$9.2
Record
46%
593-709 (1302)
Invested
$22.35
Value
$32.45
PnL
+$10.09
Record
46%
180-208 (388)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$9.09
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$4.06
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.