Aruba vs. Martinique: O/U 3.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$48.94

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 93¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,925

Combined PnL+$466.11

Over4 traders

Total Value$132.38

Total Shares1,882

Combined PnL-$515.04

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 65.8¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$457.1	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 34.6¢	$323.37	$65.37	-$258	34% 610-1204 (1814)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 34.5¢	$316.27	$64.25	-$252.03	35% 622-1179 (1801)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 59¢	$51.65	$54.96	+$3.31	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 90.4¢	$24.76	$25.48	+$0.72	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 59¢	$7.39	$11.32	+$3.93	41% 614-874 (1488)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Underavg 57¢	$1.79	$2.84	+$1.05	41% 70-102 (172)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$6.53	$1.96	-$4.57	35% 235-434 (669)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$1.26	$0.81	-$0.45	43% 391-518 (909)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,213.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$457.1

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$323.37

Value

$65.37

PnL

-$258

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$316.27

Value

$64.25

PnL

-$252.03

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$51.65

Value

$54.96

PnL

+$3.31

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$24.76

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$0.72

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$7.39

Value

$11.32

PnL

+$3.93

Record

41%

614-874 (1488)

mouzsynapse<$100

Under

Invested

$1.79

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$1.05

Record

41%

70-102 (172)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.53

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$4.57

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.45

Record

43%

391-518 (909)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.