Aruba vs. Martinique: O/U 2.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 79¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 79¢

+81% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,713

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over4 traders

Total Value$153.72

Total Shares522

Combined PnL-$82.92

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 34.9¢	$717.48	$1.3K	+$631.93	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 64.6¢	$1.2K	$993.84	-$136.14	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
LI Limousin	Underavg 47.5¢	$241.46	$403.88	+$162.42	33% 589-1191 (1780)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 48¢	$229.82	$380.64	+$150.82	34% 610-1204 (1814)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 32.3¢	$113.24	$241.89	+$128.65	35% 622-1179 (1801)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 32¢	$94.43	$203.61	+$109.18	35% 235-434 (669)
VE Venusian	Underavg 32¢	$77.32	$166.72	+$89.4	33% 593-1215 (1808)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 36¢	$50.04	$97.3	+$47.26	54% 217-187 (404)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 48¢	$144	$93	-$51	53% 6285-5568 (11853)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$69.48	$45.14	-$24.34	48% 621-673 (1294)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 55¢	$28.6	$35.88	+$7.28	47% 508-580 (1088)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$14.26	$9.43	-$4.83	46% 580-694 (1274)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 29.7¢	$8.9	$6.15	-$2.75	43% 391-518 (909)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$717.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$631.93

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,217.98

Value

$993.84

PnL

-$136.14

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$241.46

Value

$403.88

PnL

+$162.42

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$229.82

Value

$380.64

PnL

+$150.82

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$113.24

Value

$241.89

PnL

+$128.65

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$94.43

Value

$203.61

PnL

+$109.18

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$77.32

Value

$166.72

PnL

+$89.4

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$50.04

Value

$97.3

PnL

+$47.26

Record

54%

217-187 (404)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$144

Value

$93

PnL

-$51

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.48

Value

$45.14

PnL

-$24.34

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$28.6

Value

$35.88

PnL

+$7.28

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.26

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$4.83

Record

46%

580-694 (1274)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$2.75

Record

43%

391-518 (909)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.