Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Aruba vs. Martinique: O/U 1.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 48¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$431.6

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 47.5¢

-34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,240

Combined PnL+$663.85

Over6 traders

Total Value$786.55

Total Shares1,399

Combined PnL-$232.25

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 20.5¢	$276.83	$710.23	+$433.4	33% 589-1191 (1780)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 73.6¢	$797.58	$628.7	-$168.89	53% 6285-5568 (11853)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 25.9¢	$176.74	$357.63	+$180.89	35% 622-1179 (1801)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 70.6¢	$205.19	$211.63	+$6.44	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.8¢	$79.49	$108.42	+$28.93
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.6¢	$125.7	$103.21	-$22.49
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$154.79	$194.06	+$39.27	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.9¢	$70.19	$108.56	+$38.37
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$84.6	$85.5	+$0.9
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 58.9¢	$117.08	$71.05	-$35.01	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 27.5¢	$29.28	$55.84	+$26.56	33% 593-1215 (1808)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 81.5¢	$56.42	$40.16	-$16.26	48% 621-673 (1294)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 60.5¢	$38.75	$30.4	-$8.35	46% 580-694 (1274)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 23.4¢	$11.64	$26.15	+$14.51	34% 610-1204 (1814)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 25¢	$12.5	$21	+$8.5	47% 508-580 (1088)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 62.7¢	$15.14	$11.48	-$3.66	43% 391-518 (909)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$4.85	$4.77	-$0.08	29% 218-522 (740)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$276.83

Value

$710.23

PnL

+$433.4

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$797.58

Value

$628.7

PnL

-$168.89

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$176.74

Value

$357.63

PnL

+$180.89

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$205.19

Value

$211.63

PnL

+$6.44

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

Both legs:

Under$79.4930.8¢+$28.93

Over$125.770.6¢-$22.49

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$154.79

Value

$194.06

PnL

+$39.27

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

Both legs:

Under$70.1933.9¢+$38.37

Over$84.647¢+$0.9

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$117.08

Value

$71.05

PnL

-$35.01

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$29.28

Value

$55.84

PnL

+$26.56

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.42

Value

$40.16

PnL

-$16.26

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.75

Value

$30.4

PnL

-$8.35

Record

46%

580-694 (1274)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$11.64

Value

$26.15

PnL

+$14.51

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$12.5

Value

$21

PnL

+$8.5

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.14

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$3.66

Record

43%

391-518 (909)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$0.08

Record

29%

218-522 (740)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.