Aruba vs. Martinique: O/U 0.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 79¢ · $451 held · ended Nov 12

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$450.69

Combined PnL

$163

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$265.2

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$182.83

Over2 traders

Total Value$18.65

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$19.83

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 17.1¢	$51.86	$178.43	+$126.57	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 36.7¢	$138.69	$166.75	+$28.06	55% 1738-1449 (3187)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.7¢	$117.86	$131.82	+$13.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.2¢	$20.83	$34.93	+$14.1
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 21.6¢	$15.42	$42.12	+$26.7	45% 465-578 (1043)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 3.5¢	$1.7	$28.72	+$27.02	33% 629-1267 (1896)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 59¢	$11.8	$11.8	+$0	84% 447-86 (533)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 85.5¢	$22.98	$9.68	-$13.3	46% 593-709 (1302)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 70.8¢	$15.5	$8.98	-$6.53	43% 400-536 (936)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 18.2¢	$0.91	$2.95	+$2.04	42% 662-917 (1579)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 33.8¢	$0.68	$1.19	+$0.51	34% 349-676 (1025)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$51.86

Value

$178.43

PnL

+$126.57

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$138.69

Value

$166.75

PnL

+$28.06

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

Both legs:

Over$117.8636.7¢+$13.96

Under$20.8335.2¢+$14.1

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$15.42

Value

$42.12

PnL

+$26.7

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$28.72

PnL

+$27.02

Record

33%

629-1267 (1896)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$11.8

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0

Record

84%

447-86 (533)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.98

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$13.3

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.5

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$6.53

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$0.91

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$2.04

Record

42%

662-917 (1579)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$0.68

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0.51

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.