Will Martinique win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 72¢ · $975 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 44%
$974.55
$5.45
70.1¢ → 71.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 70¢ | $598.96 | $612.05 | +$13.09 | 51% 2503-2397 (4900) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 29¢ | $122.36 | $120.25 | -$2.11 | 33% 541-1119 (1660) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $82.62 | $81.19 | -$1.42 | 32% 528-1110 (1638) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $65.33 | $65.8 | +$0.48 | 41% 533-763 (1296) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $55.16 | $51.66 | -$3.49 | 55% 1636-1337 (2973) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $31.95 | $32.18 | +$0.22 | 53% 182-164 (346) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $7.77 | $6.09 | -$1.68 | 30% 71-162 (233) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.55 | +$0.4 | 50% 1206-1230 (2436) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $1.81 | $1.78 | -$0.03 | 32% 522-1096 (1618) |
Invested
$598.96
Value
$612.05
PnL
+$13.09
Record
51%
2503-2397 (4900)
Invested
$122.36
Value
$120.25
PnL
-$2.11
Record
33%
541-1119 (1660)
Invested
$82.62
Value
$81.19
PnL
-$1.42
Record
32%
528-1110 (1638)
Invested
$65.33
Value
$65.8
PnL
+$0.48
Record
41%
533-763 (1296)
Invested
$55.16
Value
$51.66
PnL
-$3.49
Record
55%
1636-1337 (2973)
Invested
$31.95
Value
$32.18
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
182-164 (346)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$6.09
PnL
-$1.68
Record
30%
71-162 (233)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$0.4
Record
50%
1206-1230 (2436)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.78
PnL
-$0.03
Record
32%
522-1096 (1618)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.